The highly anticipated El Niño has arrived, and it is already proving to be as expected. Earlier in the year, climate experts had predicted the formation of an El Niño in the central Pacific region. Over time, more models began to suggest a notably robust or “super” El Niño, although it was cautioned that certainty was premature.
In its June update, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed the development of warmer conditions in the specific Niño 3.4 region of the Pacific Ocean, marking an El Niño advisory. For the region to qualify as experiencing El Niño, temperatures must be 0.5°C above average. Presently, ocean temperatures are nearing 2°C above the norm, which is unprecedented for this time of year.
Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist from Berkeley Earth, noted that the temperatures in the traditional Nino 3.4 region are over 2°C, indicating the potential for a very strong or even “super” El Niño. Despite it being early July, the conditions are already leaning towards a substantial El Niño event.
El Niño and La Niña are part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle in the Pacific Ocean. La Niña brings cooler temperatures, while El Niño brings warmer temperatures to the region. Forecasts suggest that the peak of this El Niño may occur in October, although many models lean towards November or December for the peak period.
The 2015-2016 El Niño was the most potent in recent years, with an ocean temperature anomaly of approximately 2.75°C. The swift transition from La Niña to El Niño this year has surprised meteorologists, with the potential for a very strong El Niño forecasted within a year.
Hausfather expressed amazement at the predicted peak temperatures, which could surpass historical El Niño records significantly. The influence of climate change on these extreme events remains uncertain, with ongoing research exploring potential connections.
One notable concern is the impact on food security in tropical regions due to expected droughts. In Canada, the winter months may see milder temperatures but also drier conditions, raising concerns about increased wildfire risks in Western Canada. Hausfather emphasized the need to prepare for the significant impacts of El Niño on various sectors, cautioning that it should not be underestimated.
