In the aftermath of a recent intense attack by Russia on Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin may briefly relish the damage caused. However, the impact will not be long-lasting. The assault, which involved nearly 700 missiles and drones striking civilians in Ukraine, resulted in a minimum of 13 deaths and over 100 injuries.
This violent act, devoid of strategic purpose, aimed to retaliate against Kyiv’s drone teams that have been steadily undermining the Kremlin’s military resources. It also sought to convey to the United States, particularly President Donald Trump, that Russia is gaining the upper hand in the conflict and aims to strengthen its territorial claims in future peace negotiations.
Despite these efforts, Russia is not prevailing in the conflict. Since the holiday season, Ukrainian forces have been consistently achieving victories against a larger but poorly trained enemy. Kyiv has also been effectively disrupting the Kremlin’s capacity to launch further attacks.
While the recent Kremlin-led offensive incurred substantial costs, it failed to significantly impede Ukraine’s resilience. Prior to the assault on an oil depot, Ukraine targeted a military aircraft repair facility in Taganrog and an oil refinery in Tuapse, impacting Moscow’s military infrastructure.
These strikes are severely affecting Russia’s ability to finance the war against Ukraine. This financial strain will pose a significant challenge for the Kremlin during peace negotiations, especially as Russia has not made substantial territorial gains in recent months.
President Zelensky of Ukraine has reported that Ukrainian forces are incapacitating around 35,000 Russian soldiers each month through casualties, which is unsustainable for Russia. The country’s economy is deteriorating, fueling speculations about potential internal upheavals that could threaten Putin’s regime.
Although Russia’s large-scale attacks garner attention for their brutality, they do not contribute to winning the war. In contrast, Ukraine’s targeted strikes on critical economic assets are hitting Russia where it hurts the most, as these resources fund the atrocities suffered by Ukraine.
Recent events also revealed France’s interception of a Russian sanctions-violating tanker in the Atlantic with the assistance of UK forces. The urgency of the peace process in Ukraine is evident, and Putin’s satisfaction over the recent offensive will likely be short-lived.
