After facing challenges in the political arena for several months, Doug Ford took a more assertive stance this week, engaging in a verbal confrontation with Donald Trump. Experts and political analysts suggest that the clash with the unpredictable U.S. president aligns with the premier’s strengths and has led to a surge in his popularity just before three crucial provincial byelections.
The exchange of insults between Ford and Trump ensued following the breakdown of trade negotiations between American and Canadian officials. Trump disparaged the premier by comparing him unfavorably to his late brother, former Toronto mayor Rob Ford, questioning his charisma, intelligence, and impact, and labeling him as a “flunky” of Prime Minister Mark Carney. In response, Ford criticized Trump as the “king of bankruptcies” and a “bully,” demonstrating resilience by dismissing Trump’s insults.
The friction with Trump has proven beneficial for Ford’s political standing in the past. It notably contributed to his landslide victory in the snap election of early 2025, securing his third consecutive majority government. Recent data shows a notable 12-point increase in Ford’s personal approval ratings and a shift in favor of the Progressive Conservatives in a Liaison Strategies opinion poll conducted on the same day as the verbal spar with Trump.
The upcoming byelections in Scarborough Southwest, York-Simcoe, and Hamilton East–Stoney Creek hold significance for voters. While York-Simcoe traditionally leans towards the Progressive Conservatives, both Scarborough Southwest and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek are anticipated to be closely contested races. Observers believe that Ford’s confrontation with Trump could rally support for his party, especially among voters disenchanted with the U.S. president.
Experts, such as former Liberal cabinet minister John Milloy, emphasize the potential impact of Ford’s anti-Trump stance in motivating voter turnout for the byelections. They view it as a strategic move by the premier to tap into public discontent towards Trump and provide an outlet for expressing frustrations through the electoral process.
Despite ongoing efforts by the Official Opposition, particularly in Scarborough and Hamilton, to sway voters, Ford’s recent focus on Trump has shifted the political landscape. NDP strategist Erin Morrison acknowledges the need for the Progressive Conservatives to counter recent controversies with a fresh narrative, suggesting that Ford’s clash with Trump could serve as a turning point in the upcoming byelections.
Conservative strategist Sam Duncan highlights the alignment between Ford’s rhetoric and public sentiment, asserting that the premier’s emotional connection with voters has been a key factor in his political success. While the impact of the Trump feud may vary across different ridings, it is anticipated to bolster Ford’s position in the upcoming elections.
As the political discourse intensifies, the scrutiny on Ford’s government and its handling of key issues, such as steel tariffs in regions like Hamilton East, is expected to influence voter decisions. Despite the potential marginal impact of the Trump confrontation on overall voter sentiment, experts anticipate a nuanced effect on Ford’s government perception and electoral outcomes in the byelections.
