Tourists exploring popular destinations worldwide may face severe heat challenges due to the looming threat of El Nino, putting visitors at risk of extreme temperatures while sightseeing in various cities. A recent study by University of Oxford researchers revealed that a significant number of cities, including top tourist destinations like Bangkok, are in danger as El Nino approaches. The analysis focused on 220 major cities globally to assess their vulnerability and resilience to such temperature shocks.
The findings indicate that around 95% of the most vulnerable cities are concentrated in South and Southeast Asia, as well as Sub-Saharan Africa. Lead author Nethmi Jayaratne Kariyawasam emphasized that urban heat risk assessment should consider multiple factors beyond just high temperatures. The combination of extreme heat, vulnerability, and limited coping capacity in many cities, particularly in Asia and Africa, can significantly heighten the risk of heat-related incidents, potentially leading to life-threatening situations.
With El Nino expected to bring extreme heat waves, posing one of the most perilous threats worldwide, the study, published in Sustainable Cities and Societies, underscores the escalating frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves. These events result in increased mortality rates, infrastructure failures, and economic losses in cities globally. As more than half of the global population resides in urban areas, projected to reach two-thirds by 2050, cities are increasingly becoming focal points for climate impacts.
The research ranks 220 cities with populations exceeding 1 million based on various risk factors, including demographic and socioeconomic conditions like age and financial status. The results reveal that the majority of high-risk cities are in South and Southeast Asia, as well as sub-Saharan Africa. Fortunately, cities in the UK, such as London, exhibit lower vulnerability levels compared to other global cities. For instance, Glasgow and Birmingham ranked at the lower end of the risk scale, indicating a reduced level of vulnerability.
Co-author Jesus Lizana highlighted the significance of this study in providing a globally unified assessment of urban heat risk, emphasizing the need for urgent adaptation efforts. This comprehensive framework offers a valuable tool for identifying critical areas requiring immediate attention, while future improvements in data quality can enhance monitoring of climate adaptation progress and urban heat resilience on a global scale.
