In the most recent polling conducted by Janet Brown, an exploration into the underlying reasons for the support for separatism prior to Alberta’s October 19 referendum was undertaken. The study revealed that the primary backing for this stance did not come from individuals residing outside major urban areas, nor was it a prevailing sentiment among those with specific educational backgrounds or occupational roles. Surprisingly, the segment displaying the highest endorsement for Option 2 was identified as supporters of the United Conservative Party (UCP).
Among those aligning with the UCP, 53% indicated a preference for the separation option, surpassing all other demographic categories scrutinized by Brown and her team. Conversely, only 25% of respondents in smaller communities expressed a similar inclination towards Option 2. The survey also showed that 28% of individuals with a high school education or lower favored the separation option, while 30% of those with some college or university education shared the same sentiment.
Former Alberta finance minister Travis Toews expressed his astonishment at the substantial support for separatism within the UCP, attributing it to residual discontent linked to past federal policies. He acknowledged the positive changes under Prime Minister Mark Carney and emphasized the importance of aligning with mainstream Canadian views on critical economic matters for the benefit of Alberta’s future prosperity and the nation as a whole.
Despite the evolving political landscape, Toews highlighted the internal challenges faced by Premier Danielle Smith due to the divergent opinions within the UCP, particularly concerning separatism. The growing discord within the party has been exemplified by MLA Jason Stephan’s endorsement of a binding referendum on Alberta’s potential secession from Canada.
The UCP’s internal dynamics have been further complicated by the emergence of factions advocating for and against separatism. Tanya Clemens, a member of the separatist group Let Alberta Decide, supported a leadership review within the party to ensure accountability in the event of a pro-separation outcome in the referendum.
Looking ahead, the UCP faces a pivotal juncture as it navigates the fallout from the referendum and contemplates its future direction. Pollster Janet Brown cautioned that the party’s response to the separatist sentiment within its ranks will shape its electoral prospects and ideological identity in the coming months.
Premier Smith acknowledged the challenges posed by the survey results and vowed to engage in discussions post-referendum to address the internal divisions and chart a coherent path forward for the UCP. In response to the poll findings, a UCP spokesperson emphasized the party’s commitment to addressing Albertans’ grievances and advocating for their economic interests within the Canadian federation.
The survey, conducted among 1,200 Albertans in September 2026, highlighted the nuanced perspectives on separatism within the province, with a notable proportion leaning towards maintaining the status quo within Canada. The margin of error for the survey was estimated at +/- 2.8 percentage points, ensuring a representative sample of the population.
