The United Kingdom has experienced four heatwaves this year, and there are signs pointing to a possible fifth one in the coming days. Temperatures soared to 35C this week in southern and eastern England, meeting the heatwave criteria. While temperatures are expected to dip slightly over the weekend, another spike to 35C is anticipated soon.
According to the GFS weather model, temperatures are projected to rise on August 11, with highs of 31C likely across large parts of eastern, central, and southern England, as well as areas near the Welsh border. The data suggests that temperatures could hit 35C on August 12, with the Midlands and south-east regions being the hottest spots, although temperatures of 33C are feasible as far north as Yorkshire.
On August 13, East Anglia could see highs of 34C, while central, southern, and eastern England, along with South Wales, may experience temperatures ranging from 31-33C. These readings would mark the fifth official heatwave of 2026, defined by three consecutive days of hitting the ‘heatwave threshold,’ which varies from 28C in the south-east to 25C in regions farther away.
Temperature anomaly maps for August 11 to August 13 depict the UK shaded in dark red, indicating temperatures significantly above the seasonal norm. The GFS model forecasts that 11 English counties could reach or exceed 35C later in the month.
The Met Office anticipates a shift to “very warm or hot” conditions in August, albeit with a possibility of “thundery plumes” in certain areas. The August 5 to August 14 forecast suggests a mixed period with rain, showers, and sunny intervals. The weather may turn unsettled towards mid-August due to Atlantic frontal systems or northward-moving thundery patterns from the continent, leading to temperatures slightly above average.
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