The United Nations has issued a warning about the imminent return of El Niño, which is expected to significantly raise temperatures worldwide in the upcoming weeks. El Niño is a powerful natural weather phenomenon that typically results in elevated global temperatures and decreased rainfall. According to The World Meteorological Organization, there is an 80% probability of El Niño occurring before September and a 90% likelihood of its continuation until November.
Various national weather agencies have projected that the forthcoming El Niño event could be one of the most intense ever documented, potentially leading to a “super” El Niño with unprecedented heat levels. In the UK, the impact of El Niño is usually less pronounced but can still result in more extreme weather conditions, with colder winter temperatures and hotter summer temperatures. The ongoing heatwave could just be a precursor to what is to come.
Professor Bill McGuire, an expert in geophysical and climate hazards from University College London, anticipates that summer temperatures could be notably affected, possibly as early as this year but more likely next year, as global temperatures continue to rise. He speculates that temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius could become common.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the urgent need for global action in response to the threat posed by El Niño. He warned that El Niño conditions will exacerbate the impacts of climate change, leading to more severe and widespread consequences across borders at an accelerated pace.
The previous El Niño event, which occurred in 2023-24, was among the five most potent on record and contributed to exceptionally hot summer conditions globally. Despite the extreme heatwave experienced in 2024, scientists are forecasting that the upcoming El Niño could surpass its predecessor in intensity.
Professor Adam Scaife, the head of monthly to decadal prediction at the UK Met Office, expressed high confidence in the prediction of a significant El Niño event on the horizon, potentially setting new records for its magnitude.
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