A recent poll conducted by Research Co. indicates that a significant majority of Albertans are in favor of the province staying within Canada as the October referendum approaches. The survey, conducted in August, revealed that 74% of respondents would vote for Alberta to remain in Canada, while 22% would support initiating the legal process for a second referendum on separation.
The poll highlighted that the highest support for a binding referendum came from Albertans aged 35 to 54, with 27% in favor. In contrast, 20% of those aged 55 and older and 18% of individuals aged 18 to 34 expressed support for a subsequent referendum.
Various public opinion polls, including those from CBC News, consistently show that the majority of Albertans prefer to stay part of Canada. Mario Canseco, the president of Research Co., noted that despite the ongoing campaign, there seems to be strong conviction among the populace, indicating challenging circumstances for the separatist movement.
The survey, based on responses from 750 likely voters in Alberta, was conducted between August 24 and 26. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Canseco has been tracking the sentiment around separation annually, dating back to Rachel Notley’s tenure as Alberta premier. Typically, the numbers oscillate between 25 to 30% in favor of secession, as reflected in other recent polls.
As the referendum date nears, both federalist and separatist groups have intensified their efforts to mobilize voters. However, Canseco pointed out that the level of undecided voters is minimal, standing at only four percent in the latest poll, contrasting with typical election scenarios that witness higher undecided percentages.
Divergence on Immigration and Constitutional Reform
Despite the lack of resonance for a binding separation vote, the poll indicates a more varied response to other referendum questions on immigration and constitutional reform.
Alongside the separation query, October’s referendum includes questions on immigration (five) and constitutional reform (four). The majority of likely voters expressed support, ranging from 58 to 66%, for the immigration-related questions, indicating a positive reception to the government’s stance on the issue.
Of the proposed measures, the question about mandating proof of citizenship for voting received the highest support at 66%. In contrast, support for a law limiting access to provincial programs to Canadian citizens and approved immigrants stood at 58%.
On the other hand, public backing for the four constitutional reform questions was lower, ranging from 39 to 46%. This disparity in support suggests a gap in understanding regarding the implications of a vote for independence versus one for constitutional changes.
According to Tanya Clemens, co-leader of the Alberta independence group Let Alberta Decide, the higher support for constitutional reforms underscores the need for further education on the referendum’s potential outcomes and implications.
The survey also revealed that voters perceive the referendum’s legitimacy as a true reflection of public sentiment to hinge on voter turnout.
