Over the past year, grocery prices have been rising faster than the general inflation rate, except for August. Economist Jim Stanford and agriculture professor Mike von Massow attribute the surge in food prices to various factors, including climate conditions, immigration policies, tariffs, and retailer pricing strategies.
Analyzing Consumer Price Index data from Statistics Canada, Marketplace investigated the significant year-over-year increases in food prices in 2026 and the driving forces behind them.
Beef Prices Surge
In January, the price of ground beef surged significantly compared to the general inflation rate. (Bryan Eneas/CBC)
Reasons behind the surge:
- Historically low cattle populations due to dry conditions in the western Canadian Prairies affecting grass and hay supplies.
- Increased costs of livestock production, including higher prices for feed, fuel, and labor.
- Consistent consumer demand for beef despite rising prices, as reported by Canada Beef and Statistics Canada.
Chicken Demand and Supply
The escalating beef prices have led some consumers to shift to chicken as a more affordable protein alternative, according to Stanford from the Centre for Future Work.
Factors contributing to the chicken price increase:
- Increased consumer preference for chicken due to lower prices compared to beef.
- Inadequate chick supply to meet the rising demand, leading to higher retail prices.
- Reduced chicken production due to avian influenza outbreaks, causing a temporary price surge.
Professor Mike von Massow highlighted the protein trend as a factor influencing the rising prices, emphasizing the combination of scarcity and increased consumer awareness of protein consumption.
Economist Jim Stanford and Professor Mike von Massow discuss the causes of the notable food price hikes this year. (Joe Fiorino/CBC)
Tomato Price Surge
Reasons for the tomato price spike:
- Changes in U.S. migrant labor affecting planting activities.
- Production shift to Mexico due to adverse weather conditions and reduced crops.
- Increased transportation expenses, particularly higher diesel costs impacting fresh produce shipments to Canada.
- U.S. tariffs on Mexican tomatoes, a major source of Canada’s tomato imports.
