Alberta separatists are optimistic about winning a referendum that current surveys indicate they are likely to lose by a significant margin, according to new exclusive polling data. This disparity in expectations could have implications for the future, suggesting that the issue may not be resolved with a single vote, as noted by pollster David Coletto and political scientist Lisa Young.
The recent poll conducted by Abacus Data in early September revealed that Albertans will face a decision on October 19 with two options: either to remain part of Canada or to initiate the legal process for a binding referendum on Alberta’s separation. Alongside this pivotal question, there will be nine additional ballot questions focusing on constitutional and immigration matters.
Results from the poll showed that 64% of respondents favored remaining a province in Canada, while 24% supported commencing the separation process. Surprisingly, Option 2 supporters were overly optimistic, believing that the separatist stance would secure a winning 57% of the votes.
Coletto attributed this discrepancy to individuals residing within political echo chambers and the natural inclination to be hopeful due to their strong alignment with the separatist movement. Young highlighted the importance of the inflated expectations, particularly in terms of post-referendum implications.
Premier Danielle Smith has emphasized that the upcoming referendum will serve as a gauge of Albertans’ sentiments, suggesting a potential closure after the vote. However, both Young and Coletto foresee a prolonged impact regardless of the outcome, especially if the majority supports remaining in Canada.
The typical Option 2 voter, as depicted in the polling data, is characterized as a conservative partisan, more likely to be male and slightly older than the provincial average. They tend to reside in smaller cities or surrounding areas of Calgary and Edmonton. The primary distinguishing factor among Option 2 supporters lies in their grievances rather than demographics, with a strong preference for Alberta’s interests over national identity.
Regarding the motivation behind choosing Option 2, only 26% of voters cited independence as their main reason, while others voted for leverage, messaging purposes, or on principle. This aligns with recent messaging from the separatist camp, emphasizing a desire for a more respectful and balanced relationship with Ottawa.
The survey methodology involved online interviews with 1,000 Alberta adults conducted by Abacus Data from September 4 to 7, 2026, six weeks before the referendum. Results were weighted by region, age, and gender to reflect census data, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points.
