The El Niño weather phenomenon is predicted to strengthen further until 2027 and could potentially become the most potent occurrence on record, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events in the coming year, stated the World Meteorological Organization on Thursday. According to WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, if the current trend continues, this El Niño could surpass any observed since monitoring began, marking an unprecedented level of intensity.
The UN weather agency indicated a nearly 100% probability that El Niño will persist through February 2027, driven by exceptionally warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This marks the first instance where such a high level of certainty has been expressed by the WMO.
A powerful El Niño has the capacity to significantly alter global rainfall and temperature patterns, leading to the exacerbation of extreme weather phenomena such as typhoons. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the rapid intensification of El Niño, underscoring the urgency of the situation and the warming trend of the planet.
El Niño, characterized by periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific due to weakened trade winds, occurs naturally every two to seven years, typically lasting up to 12 months and causing severe weather conditions like heavy rains and droughts across Latin America.
This year’s El Niño has already impacted tropical regions’ soft commodities, contributing to a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor. The WMO stated that El Niño is expected to peak later this year but will extend its effects into 2027, resulting in elevated global temperatures in the following year, as highlighted by Saulo.
Saulo emphasized the WMO’s commitment to enhancing preparedness and early warning systems to mitigate the impact of El Niño. She stressed the importance of collaboration with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian organizations to provide critical climate intelligence and support disaster management in sectors like agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.
Some climate models suggest that 2026 will experience a strong El Niño, potentially affecting various regions. CBC’s Nick Logan provides insights into the implications of a “super” El Niño and what it could mean for people worldwide.
