With each major provincial party unveiling their financial strategies, Quebec voters now have a clearer understanding of their choices for the upcoming election. A recent analysis by CBC News of the election platforms shows a diverse fiscal landscape, with contrasting approaches to taxation and expenditure.
The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) and Quebec Liberal Party aim for modest increases in annual spending, while the Parti Québécois (PQ) anticipates a budget that maintains neutrality. Conversely, Québec Solidaire (QS) proposes significant boosts in funding for public transit, healthcare, and education, funded through higher taxes, including a new levy on assets exceeding $25 million.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Quebec Conservatives advocate for substantial spending cuts to facilitate a significant reduction in income and corporate taxes. The projected spending increments or reductions for each of the five main provincial parties, averaged annually, are depicted in the chart below.
In comparison, Quebec’s budget for the 2026-27 fiscal year amounted to $171 billion. Revenue forecasts for the five primary parties follow a similar pattern, with QS advocating for heightened taxes and new revenue streams, while the Conservatives promise substantial tax reductions.
The Liberals and CAQ anticipate an additional $2.4 billion and $1.9 billion in annual revenue, respectively. Both the Conservatives and the PQ plan to eliminate billions in direct corporate subsidies, with the PQ intending to utilize these savings to lower the general corporate tax rate from 11.5 to 9.5 percent, while the Conservatives propose a further reduction to 4.7 percent.
All five parties foresee a balanced budget by the fiscal year 2029-30 to comply with the province’s budget law. The PQ, however, aims to achieve a balanced budget a year earlier, in 2028-29.
The economic assumptions underlying these projections are subject to uncertainty, according to Philippe Goulet Coulombe, an associate professor at Université du Québec à Montréal. Each party’s projections contain inherent uncertainties, with QS banking on a wealth tax that may fluctuate based on asset values, posing a risk due to the market’s volatility.
The PQ, CAQ, and Liberals all rely on over $4 billion in additional transfer payments from Ottawa, which are not guaranteed. The PQ’s strategy to balance the budget earlier depends largely on achieving over $6 billion in savings through governmental efficiency enhancements. The Conservatives propose balancing the budget through increased economic growth from deregulation, heightened interprovincial trade, and revenue from shale gas extraction.
QS anticipates freeing up $2.5 billion annually by suspending payments to the Generations Fund, a contrast to the other parties that plan to maintain these payments. Despite similar sectoral spending between the PQ, Liberals, and CAQ, variations exist in their specific healthcare promises.
For instance, the PQ plans to save $40 million annually by abolishing Santé Québec, an agency formed by the Legault government. QS allocates more funds for frontline healthcare services, with an anticipated overall reduction in the healthcare budget due to projected savings from negotiating lower prescription drug prices and reforming physician compensation.
Goulet Coulombe emphasizes that the diverse platforms offer Quebecers a broad spectrum of choices, underscoring the inherent risk in each party’s economic calculations. The uncertainty surrounding these forecasts may have a more significant impact on economic planning than the forecasts themselves over time.
