After securing victory in a traditionally conservative stronghold in south Calgary, newly elected MLA Kyle Campbell credited the NDP’s success to voter confidence in the party’s stance on essential election issues. However, some conservative factions are linking the UCP’s defeat to the looming referendum on Alberta independence.
In a closely contested race on Monday, Campbell emerged triumphant in representing Calgary-Shaw in the Alberta legislature. Garnering approximately 47% of the vote, he narrowly surpassed UCP candidate Mike Derry by nearly 600 votes, as per unofficial figures from Elections Alberta.
During his canvassing efforts in the region, Campbell encountered long-time conservatives who expressed reservations about supporting the UCP due to their emphasis on the impending referendum. He highlighted that most voters were more concerned about critical issues like healthcare accessibility, school overcrowding, and the escalating cost of living, areas where he believed the UCP had not made significant improvements since assuming power in 2019.
Reflecting on the outcome, Campbell remarked, “People could just look back at the last seven years and understand where the promises deviate from the action, and I think it’s being felt so acutely right now.” He emphasized the need for leaders who prioritize addressing challenges faced by families in Alberta.
The Calgary-Shaw by-election, held shortly before an upcoming Oct. 19 provincial referendum featuring a question on Alberta’s future within Canada, marked the second time the NDP has clinched victory in the riding. The party’s previous success in 2015 was part of the “orange wave” that led them to power in a closely contested race.
NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi hailed the by-election win as a signal that no conservative seats in Calgary are secure heading into the next provincial election. Nenshi emphasized that the core concerns of Calgary-Shaw residents resonate with all Albertans and criticized the government for falling short in addressing these issues.
The Progressive Tories’ candidate, Kyle Joseph, secured third place with roughly nine percent of the vote, marking the party’s initial electoral outing since rebranding from the Alberta Party. Alberta Liberal Leader John Roggeveen finished in fourth place with around four percent of the vote.
The vacancy in the Calgary-Shaw seat followed the resignation of former cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz, who stepped down to explore new career opportunities after being first elected in 2019. Voter turnout for the by-election stood at approximately 38%, with official results set to be confirmed by Elections Alberta by Sept. 24.
Premier Danielle Smith’s press secretary, Sam Blackett, attributed the UCP’s loss in Calgary-Shaw to the Progressive Tories splitting the conservative vote and overall low turnout. Blackett expressed confidence that Albertans would rally together post-referendum to work towards a stronger Alberta within Canada.
Former Alberta premier Jason Kenney linked the UCP’s defeat in Calgary-Shaw to patriotic Canadians expressing discontent with the separatist referendum question. He warned against voting for separation, as he believed it could inadvertently benefit the NDP and Liberal Party of Canada in future elections.
City councillor Dan McLean highlighted the need for conservative unity following the UCP’s loss in the by-election. He urged the party to build a broad-based coalition to address voters’ concerns effectively and avoid further electoral setbacks.
Political scientist Lori Williams noted that the UCP candidate, Mike Derry, faced challenges despite focusing on crucial issues like healthcare and education during his campaign. She underscored the disconnect between the campaign’s emphasis on key concerns and the perceived government response, which may have disadvantaged the UCP.
Looking ahead to the next provincial election, Williams anticipated potential shifts in political support in Alberta following the Calgary-Shaw by-election and the October referendum, which she believed could indicate voter sentiments towards the government’s performance.
