On a Tuesday afternoon at Confederation Park in Calgary, Stephen Carter discusses his hopes for Alberta’s upcoming separation referendum, aiming for an 80/20 split in favor of remaining part of Canada to avoid prolonged uncertainty. Carter, a seasoned political strategist, distributes “Stay in Canada” lawn signs while emphasizing the importance of engaging in conversations about the referendum.
Despite the consistent polling showing majority support for staying in Canada, Carter expresses concern that complacency among federalists could lead to a lower voter turnout. He highlights the challenges faced by federalist campaigns in motivating supporters compared to the highly active separatist groups investing time and resources into their cause.
Social psychologist John Ellard shares Carter’s apprehension, fearing a potential Brexit-like scenario where polling predictions do not align with actual voter turnout. Carter acknowledges the difficulty in targeting efforts without historical data to guide their strategy.
Similarly, pollster Janet Brown emphasizes the risk of skewed results due to imbalanced voter turnout, underscoring the importance of active participation from federalist supporters. Meanwhile, in Red Deer, separatist Gerry Bennet expresses his firm stance on independence, citing economic concerns and urging undecided voters to push for a referendum to convey a message to the federal government.
Despite separatists’ strong engagement and fundraising efforts, Carter warns against the dangers of separatism, citing potential economic repercussions and industry instability. Separation advocate Keith Wilson remains confident in Alberta’s economic potential post-separation, downplaying concerns and emphasizing the importance of the final stretch of the campaign.
Wilson highlights Alberta’s energy prowess and market leverage, dismissing low separatist support in current polls and focusing on the critical period leading up to the referendum. Carter, while acknowledging the historical separatist sentiment in Alberta, stresses the importance of unity within the province and the majority’s preference for remaining part of Canada.
