When Mykola Lupar and his team set sail on a navy patrol boat from Chornomorsk, a Ukrainian port on the Black Sea, the 29-year-old commander usually has only a few minutes on the open water before heading back to shore.
The navy patrol boat’s heavy machine guns provide little defense against Russian jet-powered drones from Crimea, especially when trying to board a vessel in rough waters.
“We are attempting to patrol, search for mines, and explosive materials during brief breaks between Russian attacks,” Lupar explained. “It’s extremely perilous. The chances of safety for merchant fleets in our waters are nearly nonexistent.”
Maritime experts caution that the conflict in the Black Sea is currently at its most intense level since Russia’s full-scale invasion that began on Feb. 24, 2022, nearly five years ago.
Since mid-July this year, attacks on commercial ships have significantly increased as Russia aims to disrupt Ukraine’s exports and damage its economy, while Kyiv retaliates by targeting vessels linked to Russia’s shadow fleet and some port facilities.
According to Ambrey, a UK-based maritime risk firm, there were over 210 strikes on commercial ships between July and the end of September, with 125 attributed to Ukraine and 88 to Russia. These attacks have heightened risks in the Black Sea region and impacted the export capabilities of both countries, raising concerns about global grain supplies.
Together, Russia and Ukraine contribute approximately a quarter of the world’s wheat exports, but analysts estimate that their combined exports have dropped by 60% compared to the previous year.
Despite efforts, including those led by Turkey, to negotiate a ceasefire in the Black Sea, such initiatives have not succeeded. With both countries exploring alternative export routes, the ongoing attacks on shipping and ports have already led to an increase in global wheat prices, with potential for further spikes.
“This issue extends beyond just Ukraine; it affects the entire region,” emphasized Dmytro Barinov, president of the Ukrainian Ports Association. “The impact will soon be felt in our region, with shortages of food becoming evident by October or November.”
Throughout the conflict, Russia has frequently targeted Ukrainian ports and vessels, including the port of Izmail on the Danube River near Romania. However, since July, Russia has intensified its assaults on civilian ships. The Russian Defence Ministry claims to be targeting solely military assets, yet after striking a cargo ship in Chornomorsk, Ukrainian officials accused Russia of supplying the military.
Barinov asserts that Russia is targeting purely civilian vessels, citing a missile strike on a ship named
