In the previous federal election, Quebec witnessed a shift in focus from defending the province’s interests to standing up for Canada against the tariff threats and rhetoric of Donald Trump, who had spoken of potentially making Canada the 51st state. The Liberals, led by Mark Carney, capitalized on this sentiment and achieved their best election result in Quebec in decades, sidelining the Bloc Québécois.
As the provincial election commences, there is speculation about whether the U.S. president could once again play a significant role. The recently imposed tariffs became a central topic leading up to the campaign launch, prompting all party leaders to demonstrate their ability to protect Quebec from the economic consequences.
The discussions surrounding Quebec’s identity, secularism, and language were overshadowed by the noise coming from Washington. Philippe Fournier, a polling analyst, highlighted that managing the economy during uncertain times might become the primary concern for voters.
Prior to the escalation of the trade war, polls indicated that health care, housing, and the cost of living were the top issues for voters. With Quebec heavily reliant on automotive, metals, and manufacturing exports, it is projected to be among the provinces most affected by the new tariffs.
Parti Québécois leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, assured the public that a referendum would not be called until the end of Trump’s second term in office. The latest polls suggest a tightening race, with the ruling Coalition Avenir Québec gaining ground against the PQ and Liberals.
Christine Fréchette, leader of CAQ, has an advantage due to being in power amid the turmoil. She announced financial aid programs aimed at supporting businesses affected by the tariffs and has been compared to Mark Carney for her handling of the situation.
The parties are making their pitches to the voters, with opponents of Fréchette questioning her ability to navigate the current challenges effectively. Various proposals, such as a “Trump provision” and significant spending cuts, are being put forward by different parties to address the economic uncertainties posed by the trade war.
As the election unfolds, the leader who can reassure the electorate of their ability to steer Quebec through the storm of uncertainties, particularly with regard to Trump and the tariffs, is likely to gain an advantage. The outcome remains uncertain as to which leader will emerge as the steady hand in turbulent times.
