The United States has issued a warning that Russia is preparing for a potential armed “provocation” against Poland as a test of NATO’s determination. Reports suggest that Washington has informed Warsaw that the provocation may involve targeting Polish critical infrastructure with missiles and drones, or in a more extreme scenario, Russian troops crossing into NATO territory.
Sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki revealed that the alleged plot, aimed at escalating tensions and disrupting Western military and financial aid to Ukraine, could unfold within months. The US has been actively sharing information with Poland about potential Russian plans for a conventional attack on NATO’s eastern flank.
Security sources highlighted various scenarios, including drone attacks on critical infrastructure and simulated air strikes. The most severe scenario outlined involves a “hybrid attack in the border region” by Russian or Belarusian troops, which could be portrayed by Russia as a mistake.
Polish sources indicated that Russia’s strategy might be to pressure Poland through the US into negotiations or compel an end to Western support for Ukraine in exchange for withdrawing from Polish territory. Concerns of a potential provocation in Poland or the Baltic states have been echoed by an ambassador to one of Poland’s NATO allies and a member of the Polish defense ministry.
A Baltic security source disclosed discussions in Moscow about launching an attack from either Kaliningrad, Russia’s Baltic enclave bordering Poland, or from Belarus. These developments follow a report by the International Institute of Strategic Studies suggesting that Russia may have used shadow ships to deploy drones over Europe, surveilling military sites and testing NATO nations’ air defenses.
The report documented 144 suspected drone sightings across Europe between 2024 and 2026, with sightings peaking in late 2025, leading to the temporary closure of several European airports. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen described the incidents in Denmark as the most severe attack on Danish critical infrastructure to date.
