The El Niño phenomenon is expected to bring a significant increase in ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, potentially leading to extreme weather conditions such as floods and droughts, according to United Nations officials. The latest seasonal outlook from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) anticipates a particularly strong El Niño event, with temperatures in the central Pacific rising approximately 3.8 degrees Celsius above normal from November to January, reaching its peak around December.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo highlighted the unprecedented nature of this projected temperature rise, surpassing previous El Niños that recorded around 3 degrees Celsius increases with significant impacts globally. El Niño represents the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, a natural climate pattern influencing weather patterns worldwide, resulting in elevated global temperatures and disrupting rainfall distribution across various regions, causing both droughts and heavy precipitation.
While El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon not directly linked to climate change, the intensification of El Niños can be exacerbated by global warming due to the already heightened baseline temperatures. The WMO warned of potential exacerbation of housing, water, sanitation, and health service challenges due to El Niño-related weather extremes. Southern Africa may face increased flooding risks starting in November, while Southeast Asia could experience adverse impacts on agriculture and water resources due to warmer conditions and reduced rainfall. Conversely, Latin America is expected to see heightened rainfall levels.
The WMO and UN under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs and emergency relief coordinator, Tom Fletcher, issued a call to action to prepare for the forthcoming El Niño event, characterizing it as a destructive force with the potential to trigger extreme heat, droughts, and floods across Latin America, Eastern and Southern Africa, Asia, and the Pacific, resulting in significant humanitarian consequences. Fletcher warned that around 50 million people could confront heightened food insecurity as a result of this El Niño.
For further insights on this year’s El Niño phenomenon, you can watch the explanatory video “What exactly is a ‘super’ El Niño? And what does it mean for you?” to better understand the implications of this climatic event and its potential impact.
