Russia’s oil exports via the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2026 have surpassed last year’s figures by almost 50%. Approximately 20 million barrels were transported to Asia between July and mid-October, as reported by traders and data analysis.
The NSR connects Russia’s western ports to Asian markets through icy Arctic waters, known for being a riskier and more costly route. However, this year, it became more appealing due to disruptions in other key routes like the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Black Sea region.
With conflicts in Iran and Ukraine fueling inflation and making U.S. crude oil less accessible to Asian refiners, tanker freight rates have reached record highs. This situation has driven refiners to seek alternatives from the Middle East and Latin America, making the higher tariffs for NSR usage, which necessitates icebreaker assistance, more economical compared to the traditional Red Sea route to Asia.
For Russia, which oversees the NSR, it provides a secure option to bypass European waters, where vessels carrying Russian oil have faced regular detentions this year. Traders’ initial estimates suggest that the volume of Russian oil shipped through the Arctic route will increase by an additional five to 10 million barrels by the end of the navigation season.
Gazprom Neft, a prominent Russian oil company, plans to boost its NSR shipments by around 35% this year compared to 2025, according to its CEO Alexander Dyukov. Russia also transports substantial amounts of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Asia via the NSR, with expectations of increased LNG shipments following the commencement of Arctic LNG deliveries.
During an economic forum in Vladivostok in September, President Vladimir Putin expressed Russia’s anticipation of doubling cargo turnover via the NSR to 70 million tonnes annually by the decade’s end. The recent launch of Vostok Oil, Rosneft’s large-scale oil project in northern Russia, has already contributed to the escalating volumes utilizing the NSR.
